With England’s new five-spot Champions League allocation officially in play, the 2024/25 Premier League run-in just got even spicier. It’s not just about the top four anymore—five golden tickets are up for grabs, and with two weeks to go, seven clubs are still in the mix. But as the simulation gods at Pitch Analytics show us, some are sleeping easy while others are gripping their stress balls like it’s the final day of GCSEs.
Liverpool & Arsenal: Job Done
Liverpool (89 pts) and Arsenal (77 pts) are so secure, they’re probably already booking flights for their group stage away days. With a 100% chance of qualifying, these two are your first guaranteed Champions League entrants—and Liverpool are walking into the sunset with the crown in hand.
Manchester City: Third but Not Quite Certain
City are sitting third on 69 points, and while they boast a 100% UCL qualification rate, there’s still a 3% chance they slide to fourth. In other words, they’re not dropping out of the top five, but the bronze medal isn’t glued down just yet.
The Main Event: Newcastle vs Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
Here’s where the drama lives.
Newcastle United (67 pts) have a strong grip on the fourth spot, showing up in the top five in 87% of simulations. With 66% odds to finish 4th and another 17% to finish 5th, they’re most likely headed for Champions League nights under the lights at St. James’ Park.
Chelsea (66 pts), on the other hand, are walking a tightrope. Their top-five hopes sit at 52%—not terrible, but far from safe. The most common outcome for them? Fifth place (39%), but the threat of sliding to 6th or 7th is very real if the wheels come off.
Nottingham Forest (65 pts) are the true wildcard. A 50% chance to qualify for the Champions League might not sound overwhelming, but given where they started the season, this is miracle territory. Forest finishing 5th in 33% of sims means they’re more than just spoilers—they’re contenders. This could be a Leicester-level fairytale.
Aston Villa: Still in the Frame
Villa sit on 65 points too, level with Forest but trailing badly in the sims. Just an 11% chance of crashing the top five means they’d need a perfect finish and for the chaos ladder to work in their favor. Stranger things have happened—but they’re very much the underdog now.