Aston Villa survived a high-energy challenge from Nottingham Forest to secure a 2–1 win at Villa Park in Matchweek 31. While the final scoreline favored the hosts, both sides produced moments of attacking chaos and wastefulness. Villa took control early with two goals in the opening 15 minutes, but a spirited Forest side responded with intensity, albeit lacking precision. The underlying numbers reflect a hectic match: Villa’s xG of 2.13 narrowly outpaced Forest’s 1.51 in a contest full of missed chances and momentum swings.

Stats Breakdown

This match was not one for clean execution, but it had plenty of attacking endeavor. Aston Villa racked up 16 shots with 8 on target, while Nottingham Forest fired off 18 shots but managed just 3 on frame. Villa had a much better shot quality, averaging 0.133 xG/shot compared to Forest’s 0.084.

Despite Forest generating more shots and having higher dribble counts (29 to Villa’s 23), they were far more wasteful-13 of their 18 attempts missed the target. Villa, in contrast, were more clinical with fewer efforts, striking twice in the opening 15 minutes through Rogers and Malen (xG: 0.20 and 0.39 respectively).

Match Momentum

The momentum graph tells a story of two halves. Aston Villa stormed out of the gate with aggressive early pressing and transitional play, quickly converting chances into goals. But after the 20-minute mark, Forest began building a steady climb in cumulative xG, peaking around the 60-minute mark when Jota Silva slotted home to cut the deficit (xG: 0.23).

Forest pushed for an equalizer, dominating large spells of the second half, but Villa’s back line-helped by some time management and structured defending-did enough to keep the visitors at bay.

Shot Map Analysis

Villa’s goals came from high-probability zones close to the six-yard box, showcasing sharp movement and quick combination play in tight areas. Their shot-to-goal map lights up in the bottom central and left zones, where both goals and multiple chances were created.

Forest, meanwhile, took a scattergun approach. Despite having more shots (18), their chances were mostly low percentage efforts from outside the box or wide angles. The lone goal came from a well-worked move ending centrally, but much of their threat fizzled with poor shot placement and hasty decision-making in the final third.

In Possession: Pass Maps

Villa’s possession structure revolved around Tielemans and Onana in midfield, with strong vertical progression through Marco Asensio and overlapping runs from Maatsen and García. The pass map shows a balanced network, with solid links between defense and attack. They were comfortable building from the back and committed numbers forward when needed.

Forest’s pass map tells a more chaotic tale. The majority of their buildup play was channeled through Gibbs-White and Neco Williams, who tried to connect quick transitions with Elanga and Hudson-Odoi. The structure leaned heavily toward the right side, and while this created volume, it lacked the compactness and efficiency Villa showed in the final third.

Wrapping Up

This was a tale of two styles—Villa with calculated aggression and Forest with frantic ambition. Villa will be happy to take three points in a match where they were second-best in large stretches of the second half. For Forest, the xG and shot count suggest a performance deserving more—but football isn’t always fair, especially in the Premier League.