Nottingham Forest delivered a statement victory, stunning Manchester City with a gritty 1-0 win at the City Ground. It was pure snatch & grab. Callum Hudson-Odoi’s late strike sealed the deal as Forest executed a disciplined defensive display while City dominated possession but lacked their usual clinical edge. Despite the visitors accumulating a higher xG (1.01 to Forest’s 0.90), their wastefulness in front of goal proved costly.

Forest Hold the Line, City Falter in Front of Goal

Manchester City controlled 70% possession and outshot Forest 13 to 8, but their lack of cutting edge meant they left empty-handed. City’s xG of 1.01 shows they had chances but failed to convert, while Forest made the most of their 0.90 xG, with Hudson-Odoi’s late goal proving decisive.

Defensively, Forest were resilient, limiting City’s high-value opportunities and keeping Erling Haaland and Phil Foden quiet. The home side relied on a compact structure, breaking forward in transition, and ultimately took advantage of one of their few clear-cut chances.

Match Momentum: Forest’s Patience Pays Off

The momentum graph tells the story of a City side in control but unable to turn possession into goals. City built steady xG across the match but never had a major breakthrough moment, while Forest’s spikes in attacking output were few but well-timed.

The decisive moment came in the 83rd minute, when Hudson-Odoi latched onto a loose ball inside the box and curled a shot beyond Ederson to send the home crowd into a frenzy.

Shot Analysis: City Wasteful, Forest Efficient

City peppered Forest’s goal with 13 shots, but their shot selection was poor. Only 3 of their efforts hit the target, and none found the net. The shot map highlights their struggles, with several efforts coming from low xG areas or blocked by Forest’s disciplined defense.

In contrast, Forest took just 8 shots, but they made them count. They put 4 on target, and Hudson-Odoi’s finish was the difference. Forest’s ability to generate quality over quantity was key to their success.

Possession Tactics: City’s Control vs. Forest’s Direct Approach

City’s pass map shows their typical methodical build-up, with Nico González and Bernardo Silva pulling the strings in midfield. However, the final pass often lacked precision, and Forest’s deep defensive block cut off key passing lanes into the box.

Forest, on the other hand, played a more direct game, bypassing midfield with quick transitions. Their pass map reveals a reliance on wide areas, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga driving forward and Chris Wood acting as a focal point in attack.

A Monumental Win for Forest

This result is massive for Nottingham Forest as they continue to punch above their weight in the Premier League, while vying for a Champions league spot. For City, this defeat raises concerns about their attacking efficiency.

Forest fans will savor this victory, while City will rue a frustrating night of wasted opportunities. Can they bounce back next week, or will this be the start of a costly slide?