Chris Wood has always been a solid striker, but this season? He’s playing like a man possessed. Nottingham Forest’s number nine is out here rewriting expectations, bulldozing defenders, and turning every half-chance into a full-blown goal-fest. With 18 goals from just 45 shots, he’s rocking an absurd 40% shot accuracy—a number so good it should be illegal in some footballing jurisdictions. Oh, and did we mention his xG? Because Wood isn’t just finishing chances; he’s outperforming his 11.02 expected goals by a mile.

Deadly in the Box: Wood’s Goal-Scoring Clinic

A quick glance at Wood’s goal map tells you everything you need to know—this man is a penalty-area predator. Nearly every one of his goals has come from inside the box, proving that when he gets in front of goal, he’s more reliable than your morning alarm clock. Defenders? Irrelevant. Goalkeepers? Helpless. Whether it’s a towering header, a scrappy rebound, or a clinical one-touch finish, Wood is putting them away like he’s collecting trophies.

His shot map, meanwhile, shows just how ridiculous his efficiency has been. While some strikers pepper the goal with hopeful long-range efforts, Wood is all about business. 45 shots, 18 goals, and an efficiency that would make a German car factory jealous.

Wood vs. the xG Gods: A Statistical Masterclass

Expected Goals (xG) models? Chris Wood laughs in their face. His cumulative goals vs. xG chart shows a consistent gap between his actual output and what the numbers suggest he should be scoring. And while some players might ride a short hot streak, Wood’s dominance has been season-long. Every time his xG says, “You should have scored 0.5 goals today,” Wood casually responds, “I’ll take two, thanks.”

His match-by-match goals vs. xG breakdown highlights those clutch performances, with multiple games where he far exceeded his xG tally. Matchweek 24? A hat trick on an xG that barely suggested a goal. Matchweek 10? Another two-goal masterclass. If you’re a Forest fan, you just assume Wood is going to overdeliver at this point.

Nottingham Forest: Overachievers FC

It’s not just Wood who’s cooking—Nottingham Forest as a team is outperforming expectations. Their xG graph for the season shows that they’re consistently doing more than the stats say they should. Sitting third in the Premier League table, they’re proving the doubters wrong every single week. Sure, they don’t dominate possession like City or Liverpool, but they’re devastatingly efficient when they do get chances—just like their main man up front.

Wood’s goal tally has been a massive part of this rise. Without his clinical finishing, Forest’s xG might suggest a mid-table finish, but with Wood going full prime-R9 mode, they’re sniffing around Champions League places instead.

Can Wood Keep This Up?

At this point, doubting Chris Wood feels like a foolish endeavor. He’s defying xG, smashing expectations, and dragging Nottingham Forest to new heights. Sure, the logical thing would be to assume he slows down eventually—but this is a guy whose whole season has been about proving logic wrong.

So, what’s next? If Forest keeps playing like this, there’s no reason why Wood can’t keep firing them into the top four. And if he does, we’ll need to start putting some serious respect on his name. Chris Wood, Premier League overperformance king—has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?