Nottingham Forest emerged victorious at home in Matchweek 16, defeating Aston Villa 2-1 in a game defined by efficiency and contrasting attacking approaches. Despite dominating spells of possession, Villa struggled to convert opportunities, while Forest maximized their chances to secure all three points.

Key Stats and Breakdown

Expected Goals (xG): Forest: 2.5, Villa: 0.4
Shots on Target: Forest: 6 (2 goals), Villa: 2 (1 goal)
Total Shots: Forest: 16, Villa: 8

The numbers tell the story: Forest were clinical and created high-quality chances (xG: 2.49), while Villa’s low xG output (0.44) underlined their struggles in front of goal.

Match Momentum

The xG momentum chart shows Forest’s dominance throughout. After a quiet opening 20 minutes, Forest turned up the heat, with waves of pressure culminating in two goals. The goals came from high xG chances – Nikola Milenkovi?’s close-range effort (0.43 xG) and Anthony Elanga’s late strike to seal the win.

Villa’s lone moment came courtesy of Jhon Durán, whose goal (62’) carried just a 0.14 xG, a testament to their struggles to create high-value opportunities.

Shots and Tactics

Aston Villa’s Attack
Villa took 8 shots, with only 2 on target. Their primary chance came from central areas, where Durán found the net. The shot map illustrates Villa’s inability to threaten in dangerous zones, with only 1 shot inside the 6-yard box.

Nottingham Forest’s Attack
Forest’s attack was a stark contrast. Their shot map highlights 16 attempts, with key efforts originating from the center and inside the penalty area. Both goals came from high-probability chances, emphasizing their dominance in front of goal.

Possession Tactics

The pass map reveals Forest’s fluidity in attack. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Neco Williams combined effectively down the right flank, while Morgan Gibbs-White pulled the strings in central areas. Forest’s ability to bypass Villa’s midfield allowed them to overload the final third.

The pass map shows Villa’s reliance on the left flank, with Lucas Digne and Pau Torres linking play. Their buildup was heavily concentrated in deeper areas, rarely transitioning to the final third with purpose.

A clinical Nottingham Forest side outclassed Aston Villa, who will rue their inability to create meaningful opportunities. Forest’s xG dominance and tactical execution proved decisive, while Villa’s struggles in possession will leave Unai Emery searching for solutions. Forest continue their push up the table, while Villa must regroup quickly for the next matchweek.