Wondering who the best goalscorers in the Premier League are? Here at Pitch Analytics, we believe that the expected goals (xG) created is the best indicator for evaluating a forward’s goalscoring ability. In this list, we dive into the top 10 forwards by xG created, evaluating their performance last season and predicting what lies ahead for them this season. Let’s dive into it.
1. Erling Haaland
The Manchester City poacher’s spot at the top of this list is a surprise to nobody. On the back of his record-breaking 2022/23 season, Haaland Notched 27 goals in 31 games during 2023/24, suggesting that Manchester City’s playmakers will not hesitate to find him in the box. Expect Haaland’s goalscoring efficiency to improve this season, as scary as that may sound.
2. Diogo Jota
Although he isn’t a mainstay in the Liverpool starting 11, the Portuguese attacker proved to be clinical in front of goal, whether as a starter or off the bench. In the absence of club legends Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino last season, Diogo Jota’s effectiveness in front of goal rescued many points for Klopp’s men last season.
3. Callum Wilson
The Toon Army may be surprised to see Callum Wilson higher on this list than the club’s top goalscorer last season, Alexander Isak. The English striker may have felt it necessary to perform and efficiently deliver goals when he had opportunities on the field last year, and he certainly made the most of his chances. Expect him to compete for minutes, and goalscoring chances, with Isak again this season.
4. Mohammed Salah
This Liverpool talisman needs no invitation to score goals. The 2023/24 winger had the lowest league goal tally of his career last season, only notching 18 goals in 32 games. However, this tally wasn’t for a lack of chances, as Salah cemented himself as the league’s 4th most efficient goal scorer last season.
5. Alexander Isak
The Swedish striker cemented himself as Newcastle’s best player last season, scoring 21 goals in 30 matches. Although his goalscoring ability was less efficient than Callum Wilson’s, expect him to give defenders nightmares again this season.
6. Beto
Beto, who joined Everton from Udinese last summer, has yet to cement his spot in the starting eleven. Despite limited minutes, he has been highly efficient in creating scoring chances, boasting a strong xG per 90 minutes. With more playing time under Sean Dyche next season, Beto could lead Everton to a finish higher than 15th.
7. Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Much like Beto, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Everton are due for some positive regression. According to Opta, DCL created an xG of 13 but scored only 7 goals. If he can regain his confidence and form, he has the potential to be as prolific as he was from 2019 to 2021, once again becoming a key goal scorer for the Toffees.
8. Joao Pedro
João Pedro, who joined Brighton from Watford last year for a club-record fee, has lived up to the high expectations. Despite an injury that sidelined him for a few weeks, his performances under Roberto De Zerbi were very impressive. Under new manager Fabian Hurzeler, we hope to see João Pedro continue his excellent expected goalscoring form and showcase his talents to Brighton fans. Watch out for him to be one of the best shadow strikers/false nines in the league.
9. Richarlison
Remove the 2022/2023 season, and Richarlison stands out as one of the best forwards in the Premier League over the past several years. Last season was his best since joining Watford in 2017. If he can stay fit this season, he’s poised to excel. While he won’t replace Harry Kane’s role, no one expects him to. If Richarlison continues his strong expected goalscoring form, he could lead Spurs to a Champions League spot.
10. Bukayo Saka
The young Englishman has cemented himself as the key player for the London club. Last season, he achieved his career-best stat line of 16 goals and 9 assists, and that number will only increase this season. Expect the young Gunner to be even more efficient and clinical on Arsenal’s right side, as his ability to create chances both inside and outside the box makes him one of the league’s best goalscorers.