When Everton swapped Sean Dyche for David Moyes on January 11, 2025, the Toffees were stuck in an attacking rut. The question wasn’t just about team performance—it was also about which striker could lead the line effectively. Beto and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have both had their chances this season, but how have they fared before and after the managerial switch? Let’s dive into the numbers and see who has flourished and who’s been left frustrated.
Beto: From Bench Warmer to Goal Poacher?
Beto’s season has been a slow burn, but recently, it’s started to catch fire. Before Moyes arrived, Beto had only a couple of goals to his name and was struggling to justify his selection. But since the change in the dugout, something has clicked. His goal tally has shot up to six, and most of his finishing has been inside the penalty area, as shown by his goal map.
His cumulative xG graph shows a major surge after matchweek 23, right around the time Moyes got to work.
His shot map tells an interesting story—26 attempts, but only 23.1% accuracy. That’s not exactly lethal, but what stands out is his xG overperformance. With an xG of 3.84, he’s bagged six goals, meaning he’s finishing chances better than expected.
The game-by-game xG and goal breakdown reveals that Beto had been operating under the radar for most of the season, but since the coaching change, he’s come alive. There’s a clear trend—more involvement, more big chances, and crucially, more goals. Whether it’s tactical shifts under Moyes or simply a confidence boost, Beto looks like a striker reborn.
Calvert-Lewin: The xG King Without a Crown
If there’s a player who defines frustration in front of goal, it’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The numbers are brutal: 38 shots, just 3 goals, and a dismal 7.9% shot accuracy. It must be noted that he has been injured since January 30th.
While Beto has been scoring above his xG, DCL is on the opposite end of the spectrum. His cumulative xG graph is a painful sight—he should have over 7 goals, but he’s stuck at just three.
The worrying part? This isn’t just a one-off bad spell. The match-by-match xG breakdown shows he’s consistently getting into great positions but failing to convert. Before Moyes’ arrival, he had already been underperforming, but post-Dyche, it’s been more of the same.
The goal map reinforces this—it’s not like he isn’t getting into the right areas, he just can’t seem to find the finishing touch.
Everton’s xG and the Tactical Shift
Looking at the Everton xG graph, the team’s expected goals have been fluctuating wildly throughout the season. Under Dyche, there were plenty of games where Everton’s attack was lifeless, producing xG numbers below 1. Moyes’ arrival has injected a bit more offensive intent, but not dramatically so.
Everton’s average xG of 1.10 ranks them 16th in the league, showing their attacking output is still a work in progress. Their xG differential of -0.20 (meaning they concede more quality chances than they create) highlights their biggest issue—creating chances isn’t the problem, finishing them is.
And that brings us back to Beto and Calvert-Lewin. One is outperforming expectations and growing in confidence, the other is floundering despite promising underlying numbers. If Everton want to climb the table, they need to decide—do they stick with the more clinical, if sometimes erratic, Beto? Or do they persist with Calvert-Lewin, hoping his luck eventually turns?
Final Verdict: The Battle for the No.9 Spot
David Moyes has a decision to make. Beto has momentum, a rising goal tally, and a knack for converting difficult chances. Calvert-Lewin, on the other hand, is still struggling despite getting plenty of service. If Everton want to maximize their attacking potential, the numbers suggest Beto deserves the starting spot for now.
DCL has the xG on his side—but as the old saying goes, goals win games, not expected goals. If his finishing doesn’t improve, he might find himself watching from the bench more often as Beto takes center stage.
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