When the 2024/25 Premier League season kicked off, few would have expected Bournemouth to be sitting proudly in seventh place after 23 matchweeks. Our preseason simulation had them finishing 12th with 51 points, firmly in mid-table safety. Fast forward to now, and Bournemouth are breaking expectations, looking like a team that might just crash the European party.

The Story Behind the Rise

Bournemouth’s journey this season has been nothing short of remarkable. Their underlying numbers paint the picture of a team that’s not just getting lucky but genuinely competing at a high level. The expected goals (xG) graph for the season (attached below) shows how they’ve grown into the campaign. From early inconsistency-where their xG often lagged behind their xGA (expected goals against)-to recent matches where they’ve outperformed opponents consistently, the Cherries have developed into a resilient, dangerous team.

Notably, Bournemouth’s average xG stats place them fourth in xGF (expected goals for) and fifth in xGA. A 58.4% xG share underscores their dominance in games, reflecting an aggressive and structured approach under their manager.

Key Matches Define the Season

It hasn’t all been smooth sailing. The first half of the season saw a mix of highs (a 3-2 win over Everton) and lows (heavy defeats to Chelsea and Liverpool). However, a defining stretch in the midseason catapulted them up the table. Wins over Arsenal (2-1) and Newcastle (2-0), combined with key draws against Brighton and Manchester United, showcased their ability to compete with the league’s big boys.

Most recently, their emphatic 5-0 victory against Nottingham Forest put the league on notice. This wasn’t just about goals but dominance-an xG of 3.23 reflected their ability to create high-quality chances with regularity.

Defying Expectations

Comparing our preseason simulation to the updated table prediction after Matchweek 23, Bournemouth’s progress is undeniable. Preseason had them fighting in the lower mid-table, but now they’re projected to finish seventh with 61 points. They’ve gained a staggering +10 points in expectations, a testament to their tactical evolution and players stepping up when it matters most.

The Premier League table reflects this progress. Bournemouth sit seventh, ahead of traditional powerhouses like Manchester United, Tottenham, and West Ham. Their solid goal difference (+15) and balanced record (10 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses) highlight their consistency.

Can Bournemouth Go All the Way?

The Cherries have a real shot at a Europa League or Conference League spot if they maintain this form. While the competition is fierce, their numbers suggest they’re more than capable. With their attack firing and a defense that’s tightening up, the second half of the season could be just as exciting as the first.

Bournemouth’s season isn’t just about results; it’s about proving doubters wrong. From preseason predictions of a mid-table finish to a potential European spot, the Cherries are flying high. If they keep trending upward, this could be one of the stories of the 2024/25 Premier League season.