Chelsea’s Premier League campaign has hit a rough patch, with their recent performances leaving fans frustrated and the squad falling short of expectations. A look at the most recent xG data reveals a stark reality: Chelsea are creating chances but failing to capitalize on them.
Their expected goals (xG) graph paints a clear picture of opportunities squandered, and the current Premier League table sees them drop to sixth, a position that reflects their struggles. To make matters worse, over the last five matches, Chelsea sits 17th in form, highlighting the severity of their slump.
The Blues’ attack has been spearheaded by Nicholas Jackson, but his recent form has mirrored the team’s finishing woes. Jackson hasn’t found the net in the last five games, despite racking up 1.75 xG during this stretch. It’s not for lack of effort or chances; the problem lies in converting those opportunities into goals. The underlying numbers suggest Chelsea are playing well enough to generate scoring chances, but their composure in front of goal is missing.
Chelsea haven’t won a match in their last five outings, a streak that includes disappointing results against Crystal Palace, Fulham, and Brighton. Their xG over these matches consistently outpaces their opponents, but the goals just aren’t coming. The contrast between their xG trend and actual goal output is becoming a worrying theme. Despite boasting an average xG of 2.05 per game, ranked second in the league, their inability to finish chances is dragging them down.
Looking at the Premier League table for the last five matches, Chelsea’s form is bleak. With zero wins, they have tumbled into a relegation-level position. This slump is a stark contrast to their earlier consistency, where they had been fighting to maintain their top-five position.
The most recent 0-2 loss to Ipswich Town is a low point that encapsulates Chelsea’s issues. It’s not that Chelsea aren’t trying; it’s that their efforts yield nothing on the scoreboard. The team’s xG differential of +0.64 across the season should make them a force to reckon with, but right now, it’s simply an indicator of what could have been.
However, today’s match against Wolverhampton Wanderers presents an opportunity to turn things around. Will Chelsea be able to end their struggles and regain some momentum? Based on their xG trends and Wolves’ recent form, we give Chelsea a 75% chance to secure a win today. If the Blues can find their scoring touch, this could be the game that reignites their season.
Chelsea fans will be hoping this rough patch is just a blip in the season, but the Blues need a spark to turn their season around. Whether it’s a tactical tweak, a psychological shift, or a moment of magic from their attackers, something needs to change. For now, Chelsea’s struggles serve as a reminder that dominating xG doesn’t always equate to success—sometimes, football is all about that clinical touch.