Back in Matchweek 4, Nottingham Forest stunned the footballing world by handing Liverpool their only defeat of the season so far. The match ended 1-0 in Forest’s favor, with Callum Hudson-Odoi’s lone goal in the 72nd minute proving decisive. Despite dominating possession (68%) and creating more chances (1.3 xG compared to Forest’s 0.5 xG), Liverpool failed to capitalize on their opportunities, allowing Nottingham Forest to execute a defensively solid, counter-attacking masterclass.

This matchup remains a highlight of the season for Forest, showcasing their ability to compete against the league’s best. As Matchweek 21 approaches, the stage is set for a rematch, with both teams in vastly different positions but carrying the weight of this result in their minds.

Key Stat Breakdowns

Shots and Goals: Liverpool had 14 shots, with 5 on target but no goals, epitomizing their wasteful evening. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, managed only 5 shots, 3 on target, but converted their single big chance with clinical precision.
xG Differential: Liverpool’s 1.3 xG dwarfed Forest’s 0.5, yet this serves as a reminder that football isn’t played on expected goals charts.
Possession and Passing: Liverpool dominated possession with 113 total sequences and an average duration of 17 seconds, while Nottingham Forest leaned on quick transitions and defensive organization, completing only 104 sequences with shorter average possession durations (9 seconds).

Match Momentum

The momentum graph reflects Liverpool’s overwhelming control of the game, particularly in the first half. They created sustained pressure but lacked the final touch. Nottingham Forest’s momentum spikes are shorter but decisive, including Hudson-Odoi’s goal, which came during a rare attacking phase.

Shooting Efficiency: A Tale of Two Ends

Liverpool’s shot map shows numerous efforts both inside and outside the box but highlights inefficiency, with most efforts missing the target.

Conversely, Nottingham Forest’s minimal but targeted attempts, including a perfectly placed Hudson-Odoi strike, underline their ruthlessness in key moments.

Possession Tactics: The Pass Maps

Liverpool’s pass map illustrates their intricate passing structure, particularly through Alexander-Arnold and Salah on the right flank. Gravenberch and Mac Allister dictated play in midfield, while Robertson and Díaz added width on the left. Despite this, the lack of penetration in Forest’s compact defensive block was evident.

Nottingham Forest’s pass map tells a different story. Ward-Prowse played a pivotal role as the metronome, with support from Domínguez and Gibbs-White in midfield. The defensive solidity of Milenkovi? and Sels was key to withstanding Liverpool’s onslaught, while Alex Moreno’s advanced position enabled the occasional counter-attack.

Reflecting on Matchweek 4 as Matchweek 21 Looms

Liverpool remains at the top of the table, showcasing consistency with only one blemish on their record—this match. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, sit in 3rd, exceeding expectations and riding high on moments like this victory. As they prepare to face off again, Forest will aim to replicate their defensive resilience, while Liverpool will look to avenge their only defeat and solidify their title charge.

This rematch is not just about three points—it’s about pride, strategy, and rewriting narratives as two of the season’s standout teams collide once again.