West Ham United fans, it’s been a rough ride this season. Sitting 14th in the Premier League table after Matchweek 20, the Hammers’ campaign has been far from the one many envisioned when Julen Lopetegui took the reins last summer. Fast forward to today, and the club has parted ways with Lopetegui, with Graham Potter stepping in to steady the ship. The question remains: what went wrong, and can Potter turn things around?
A Season of Missed Expectations
The preseason simulations painted a more optimistic picture for West Ham. With a predicted finish of 9th place and 54 points, there was hope that the Hammers could challenge for a spot in the top half of the table. Fast forward to the latest simulations after Matchweek 20, and the projection has fallen drastically. West Ham is now expected to end the season in 12th, with only 48 points—a stark contrast to the preseason optimism.
The current Premier League standings reflect the struggles on the pitch. Fourteenth place, just 4 points above the relegation zone, is a position no West Ham fan wants to see. The team has consistently fallen short in key moments, and the numbers back up the poor results.
xG Tells the Story
Looking at the xG trends this season, West Ham’s expected goals (xGF) have been consistently underwhelming. Rarely surpassing the 1.5 mark in most matches, the attacking output has been blunt at best. On the flip side, their xGA (expected goals against) has often hovered dangerously high, highlighting defensive frailties that Lopetegui’s side never managed to address.
Perhaps the most damning statistic is the xG differential. West Ham sits in the red far too often, underlining a team that isn’t just unlucky—they’re systematically poor at both ends of the pitch.
A Goal Map That Speaks Volumes
The goal map adds another layer to the story. West Ham rarely, if ever, scores outside the box. In an era where moments of brilliance from distance can change games, the Hammers’ inability to produce these moments leaves them predictable and easy to defend against. Their reliance on scoring from within the penalty area has made them one-dimensional, and opposition teams have capitalized on this.
The Potter Era Begins
Julen Lopetegui’s tenure will undoubtedly be remembered as a disappointment. Hailed as a tactical mastermind upon his arrival, Lopetegui failed to implement a coherent attacking strategy or shore up a leaky defense. With Graham Potter now at the helm, West Ham fans will hope for a swift turnaround. Potter’s Brighton side in previous seasons showed a knack for combining defensive solidity with creative attacking play—qualities sorely missing at the London Stadium.
The Road Ahead
Potter has his work cut out for him. With 18 matches left in the season, his immediate priority will be to stabilize the defense and inject creativity into the attack. The January transfer window could also play a crucial role in reshaping the squad, as West Ham cannot afford to continue their slide toward the relegation battle.
While the season has been a disappointment so far, the arrival of a new manager brings fresh hope. Graham Potter has proven his worth in the Premier League before, and if he can replicate even a fraction of that success, West Ham might just salvage what remains of the 2024/25 season. For now, the fans’ faith rests in his hands.