Chelsea’s season so far has been a tale of high expectations meeting reality. Currently sitting fourth in the Premier League table after 20 matchweeks, the Blues are far from struggling but remain a few steps short of where they aspire to be. With preseason predictions placing them in 5th with 68 points, and their most recent simulation projecting a finish in the same spot, Chelsea’s campaign has been defined by inconsistency, especially when compared to the surprise package Nottingham Forest, who are ahead of them in third.
The xG Narrative: A Season of Fine Margins

Chelsea’s xG data paints an intriguing picture. With an average xGF (expected goals for) of 2.00, they are ranked 2nd in the league for offensive output. However, their xGA (expected goals against) stands at 1.42, placing them 8th defensively. This combination leaves them with an xG differential of +0.58, ranking 4th. While these numbers reflect a team capable of dominating matches, the story beneath the surface reveals an inability to consistently convert xG advantages into tangible points.
Their xG chart highlights this struggle. High points, like the 6-2 dismantling of Wolves in Matchweek 2 and the 4.46 xGF against Brighton in Matchweek 6, demonstrate their attacking potential. But these are countered by disappointments such as the 2-1 loss to Liverpool (Matchweek 9) and the 1-2 defeat to Fulham (Matchweek 18), where their inability to capitalize on opportunities cost them dearly.
Comparing Expectations: Preseason and Current Projections


At the start of the season, our preseason simulation envisioned Chelsea battling for a Champions League spot but falling just short. Their current position and trajectory align with these expectations, as the Matchweek 20 simulation projects them finishing 4th or 5th with around 69 points. This consistency suggests Chelsea have performed to the level anticipated, but the league’s unpredictable nature—including Nottingham Forest’s remarkable rise—has left them looking over their shoulder.
Key Struggles and Turning Points
Chelsea’s season has been punctuated by moments of brilliance and mediocrity. Wins against Bournemouth (1-0, Matchweek 4) and Aston Villa (3-0, Matchweek 13) showcased their offensive firepower. However, frustrating draws with Crystal Palace (1-1, twice!) and a draw 1-1 against Everton indicate a team lacking the killer instinct to consistently close out games.
Their defense has also been a concern. Matches where they allowed multiple goals, such as the 4-2 thriller against Brighton and the 4-3 win over Tottenham, highlight vulnerabilities that elite teams typically iron out. With an xGA of 1.42, Chelsea’s defense has been decent but not championship-caliber, and it’s an area that must improve if they’re to sustain their push for a top-four finish.
Nottingham Forest: The New Benchmark?
What makes Chelsea’s position even more striking is that they’re trailing Nottingham Forest in the table. Forest, predicted to finish 16th in preseason, have defied all odds and currently sit 3rd, a point ahead of Chelsea. While Forest have consistently “done more than what is expected of them in matches,” Chelsea’s season has been about doing just enough to stay in contention—a frustrating reality for a club of their stature.
The Path Ahead
With 18 matches remaining, Chelsea have every opportunity to solidify their top-four status. Their attacking metrics suggest they can score with the best of them, but consistency and defensive organization will determine whether they can keep pace with the league’s elite. Upcoming clashes against Arsenal and Manchester City will serve as litmus tests for their ambitions.
Final Thoughts
Chelsea’s 2024/25 season has been solid but unspectacular. In a league where surprises like Nottingham Forest are stealing the headlines, the Blues have found themselves fighting to stay relevant in the top-four race. The potential is there, and the xG numbers suggest they’re not far off. But in football, as in life, converting potential into results is what separates the good from the great.