After 19 matchweek of the 2024/25 Premier League season, Bournemouth have emerged as one of the league’s surprise packages, sitting proudly in seventh place in the table. Few would have predicted such an ascent for the Cherries when the season began. A preseason simulation by Pitch Analytics had them finishing 12th with 48 points, comfortably mid-table but nowhere near their current lofty position. To add to their underdog charm, Bournemouth are drawing comparisons to Nottingham Forest, another side defying the odds and “pulling above their weight” this season.
One look at Bournemouth’s xG trends for the season tells the story of a team finding ways to grind out results. The graph highlights their ability to generate consistent attacking chances while keeping opponents’ opportunities manageable. Averaging an impressive 1.84 xG per game (4th in the league) and limiting their xGA to 1.31 (5th), Bournemouth have established themselves as a balanced side with both attacking potency and defensive stability. Their xG differential of +0.53 per game is the third-best in the league, showcasing their remarkable efficiency.
The journey hasn’t been without its ups and downs. Key moments include their thrilling 3-1 win over Southampton and an emphatic 2-1 victory against Manchester City. But it’s not just about beating relegation battlers; Bournemouth also earned a hard-fought 2-2 draw with Fulham and edged past Tottenham Hotspur 1-0. These results reflect a side that is both resilient and adaptable, capable of competing against stronger opposition.
What’s driving their success? Managerial tactics and squad cohesion have undoubtedly played a role, but their ability to exceed expectations is reminiscent of Nottingham Forest. Both clubs were expected to linger in the lower reaches of the table but have instead punched above their weight. For Bournemouth, the consistency in performance metrics like xG and xGA has been key, alongside crucial contributions from players delivering in pivotal moments.
Compared to their preseason outlook, Bournemouth have already proven many doubters wrong. The latest simulations still project them to finish in the top half, albeit dropping slightly to ninth, which underscores the sustainability of their form. For a team tipped for mediocrity, they’ve elevated themselves into the conversation for a European finish, an achievement that would mark a historic high for the club.
As the season progresses, it will be fascinating to see if Bournemouth can maintain their momentum and continue to “pull above their weight” in one of the most competitive Premier League campaigns in recent memory. For now, the Cherries’ fans can savor an unexpected but well-deserved place in the upper echelons of English football.