Nottingham Forest fans, pinch yourselves—this isn’t a dream. As of Matchweek 16, Forest sit in fourth place in the Premier League table, and while the skeptics look at the usual heavyweights to overtake them, this season’s Forest have one thing on their side: consistency. They’ve mastered the art of “doing what is expected of them in matches,” and their underlying stats—particularly expected goals (xG)—tell a fascinating story.
A Season Built on Expected Goals
Take a look at Forest’s xG chart this season, and you’ll see a side that doesn’t leave much to chance. They average 1.63 xG per match while keeping their expected goals against (xGA) impressively low at 1.27. That’s a positive differential of 5.8, which shows they’re creating chances while limiting their opponents—hallmarks of teams who stay in the upper reaches of the table.
When Forest win, they win with purpose. Look at their victories against Southampton (1-0), Liverpool (1-0), and Ipswich Town (1-0). These matches show just how efficient Nuno Espírito Santo’s men have become at converting their opportunities and staying disciplined. While other teams rely on chaotic attacking flurries, Forest calmly get the job done and make their xG count.
Defense Wins You Points
In matches like Fulham (0-1) and Chelsea (1-1), Forest’s xGA remained low but the execution slipped slightly. That said, matches where Forest concede below 1.0 xGA often see them picking up points, proving how resolute their backline has been. When they keep their xGA tight, they walk away with crucial results—no stat exemplifies this more than the Aston Villa match (2-1), where their 2.49 xG overwhelmed the opponent despite a slight defensive wobble.
Clutch Moments Matter
The standout statistic? Forest’s knack for clutch performances. They’ve exceeded their xG on crucial occasions—West Ham United’s 3-0 hammering and Leicester City’s 3-1 dismantling being prime examples. Teams who can maximize chances when they arise tend to stick around in the top spots, and Forest are proving just that.
Espirito Santo’s Quiet Revolution
Nuno Espírito Santo deserves massive credit for orchestrating a team that executes its game plan week in and week out. Forest doesn’t play overly flashy football, but they execute what’s required. They hold their ground defensively, seize high-value opportunities, and capitalize on the moments when it matters most. In other words, they do what’s expected of them.
What’s Next for Forest?
If Forest can maintain their xG trends—creating more than they concede—they’re on track for a truly special season. With 16 weeks in the rearview mirror and a strong record against top-tier teams, this isn’t a fluke—it’s Forest’s reality.
The question is: can Nottingham Forest sustain this push into European football? If they keep “doing what’s expected,” the answer might surprise us all. Forest fans, enjoy the ride. ?