Matchweek 12 has brought yet another exciting update to the 2024/25 Premier League season simulations, with notable shifts across the table. Liverpool continues to dominate with a projected 86 points, maintaining their lead at the top. Arsenal closes the gap slightly with a consistent 78 points, leapfrogging Manchester City, who now sit in third with a drop in their projection to 78 points as well, though their position change suggests Arsenal has momentum on their side.

The Race at the Summit

Liverpool’s grip on the top spot has solidified since Matchweek 8, where they trailed Manchester City by a single point. City’s early dominance in Matchweek 8 (84 points) has been on a slow decline, evidenced by their drop to second in Matchweek 10 and now to third. Arsenal, meanwhile, has shown remarkable consistency. From third place in Matchweek 8, they have held steady and are now reaping the rewards of slight tactical adjustments or key player performances pushing them ahead.

Chelsea remains a firm fourth place across all simulations, showing signs of steady form with 71 projected points by Matchweek 12. Brighton has emerged as a surprise contender, maintaining their 69-point prediction from Matchweek 11 and consistently climbing over the weeks. From seventh in Matchweek 9, they’ve climbed to fifth, a testament to Roberto De Zerbi’s squad’s exciting style and resilience.

The Mid-Table and European Hopes

Tottenham Hotspur’s decline is one of the most glaring stories in the simulations. Falling from fifth in Matchweek 10 to eighth by Matchweek 11, their rebound to sixth in Matchweek 12 with 63 points suggests their form remains unpredictable. Aston Villa, meanwhile, slips to seventh, losing one spot for the second week running, while Newcastle United’s steady 61-point projection sees them narrowly holding onto eighth, despite pressure from Bournemouth and Manchester United.

Bournemouth has been quietly improving, now in 10th place, while Manchester United’s struggles continue. Predicted to finish ninth with 52 points, Erik ten Hag’s side seems stuck in a rut, with no major changes to their position over the past few matchweeks.

The Relegation Scrap

At the bottom, Southampton appears destined for the drop with just 21 points projected—a bleak but consistent outcome across all simulations. Ipswich Town and Leicester City remain in the bottom three, with little movement in their projected points. Wolves, who sat 17th in Matchweek 10, have climbed slightly, leaving Everton dangerously close to the relegation zone after their drop from 16th in Matchweek 11 to 17th in Matchweek 12. Crystal Palace’s position has remained static, but their lack of progress will concern Roy Hodgson as the season advances.

Trends and Takeaways

The Matchweek 12 simulation reflects a fascinating trend: Liverpool’s sustained dominance and Arsenal’s quiet, steady push make the title race one to watch. Manchester City’s slight decline in form is intriguing, especially given their early-season strength. Brighton’s rise is another highlight, with their high-intensity playstyle and tactical discipline propelling them into the European conversation.

The relegation battle remains static at the bottom but increasingly competitive in the 15th to 17th positions, with Everton, Wolves, and Crystal Palace all needing to find form fast to avoid being sucked further into danger.

As we move deeper into the season, Matchweek 13 promises more twists. Will Liverpool hold on to their lead? Can Brighton maintain their upward trajectory? And who among the struggling sides will find a spark to climb out of trouble? Stay tuned as Pitch Analytics keeps you updated with data-driven insights into the Premier League’s unpredictable journey!