The Premier League season simulations are heating up, and after Matchday 11, Liverpool has taken a dominant lead in our projections. With an impressive 85 points predicted, they have a 100% probability in the most recent sim of finishing as champions. Manchester City, still in close pursuit, are projected to finish with 80 points and have a 99% likelihood of claiming the second spot in this sim. Arsenal, while holding steady in third with 78 points, also enjoys a solid 99% probability of locking in their position. It’s Matchweek 11 so there is still plenty of matches to play and much can change on the way to the end of the season.
Let’s take a journey back through the season’s evolution to see how we arrived at these standings. After Matchweek 6, Arsenal was topping our table predictions, with Manchester City and Liverpool trailing closely. However, as the weeks progressed, Liverpool’s consistency propelled them upward, eventually dethroning City by Matchday 9. The recent simulations underscore Liverpool’s supremacy, with Klopp’s squad proving relentless in their pursuit of the title.
Chelsea’s rise has also been noteworthy. After a shaky start, they have steadily climbed to fourth place with 70 projected points and a 97% chance of holding that position. Brighton and Aston Villa have swapped places a couple of times but currently, Brighton sits fifth, riding high on a string of solid performances that give them a 74% chance of securing a Europa League spot.
Meanwhile, Tottenham has experienced a slight tumble, dropping from fifth to eighth over the past few weeks, a change largely driven by inconsistent form and some injury setbacks. Bournemouth, on the other hand, has shown remarkable resilience, maintaining a top-ten projection, currently in ninth place with a 10% chance of breaking into the top eight.
Lower down, the battle to avoid relegation continues to intensify. Ipswich Town and Southampton seem destined for the drop, with a combined 175% likelihood between them to finish in the bottom two. Leicester City, despite occasional flashes of promise, is struggling to escape the relegation zone, with a projected 18th-place finish.
This season’s journey has been nothing short of thrilling, and with every week, new narratives unfold in this drama-packed simulation. Stay tuned as our model continues to track and predict each twist and turn in the 2024/25 Premier League season!