Stats Corner Thursday: xG for and against

xG: Tottenham’s Attacking Surge, Liverpool on Top, and Leicester’s Struggles

As the Premier League enters the exciting aftermath of Week 6, the expected goals (xG) metrics start to reveal some intriguing narratives. Liverpool, despite leading the league table, aren’t the top dogs in terms of xG — that title currently belongs to Tottenham.

Spurs, under the leadership of Ange Postecoglou, have finally found a way to turn that relentless attacking pressure into chances. Whether it’s their dynamic midfield movement or the resurgence of Son Heung-min as a focal point in attack, Tottenham’s 13.4 xG tells a tale of offensive prowess just waiting to explode. They’re creating high-quality opportunities and, frankly, living up to the hype after Kane’s departure.

Meanwhile, Liverpool are chasing hard with an impressive 12.4 xG. Slot’s men are back with that Slot System that has opponents fearing every turnover in midfield. Mohamed Salah continues to terrorize defenses, but it’s the new-look front line that’s spreading the goals around. This level of chance creation is one of the reasons they’re top of the table — the Reds aren’t just winning games; they’re making sure the goals keep flowing.

Manchester City, as ever, are sticking around the conversation with 12.2 xG. Guardiola’s side might be third in this list, but you can’t ignore their consistency in creating high-quality chances. Even without De Bruyne for most of the early season, City are finding ways to stay threatening, largely due to their endless depth and tactical flexibility. That’s how champions behave, right?

At the other end of the spectrum, Leicester City and Ipswich Town share the unfortunate title of the lowest xG in the league. With just 4.3 xG, it’s clear both teams are struggling to carve out clear-cut chances. For Leicester, it’s a far cry from their triumphant days just a few seasons ago. Dean Smith has to figure out how to unlock their attack, or their days back in the top flight may be numbered. Ipswich, fresh off promotion, are getting a taste of just how tough life in the Premier League can be.

Everton are also far from convincing, managing just 6.1 xG. With the season already testing Sean Dyche’s tactical acumen, the Toffees are in for a battle to improve their attacking efficiency. While it’s still early, fans will be hoping that a few tactical tweaks could spark their offense to life.

Week 6 may have given Liverpool the lead in the standings, but if xG is anything to go by, Tottenham and Manchester City are well-positioned to make the title race one of the most thrilling in years. As for those teams at the bottom of the xG rankings, they better start figuring out how to generate some meaningful chances, or it’s going to be a long, tough season.

xG Against: Liverpool’s Defensive Dominance, Leicester’s Fragile Backline

In the Premier League, defending your goal is as much an art form as scoring them, and after six weeks, the expected goals against (xGA) table reveals some surprising performers. Liverpool, who sit atop the league, are not only creating high-quality chances but also putting up a defensive clinic. With just 4.5 xGA, the Reds are looking impenetrable.

Manchester City, as expected, are not far behind. Guardiola’s men have conceded a meager 5.2 xGA, reminding everyone why they’re the champions. Their possession-based style doesn’t just wear teams down in attack, but it also protects their defense by limiting the opposition’s chances. And, let’s face it, when your opponents can barely get the ball, it’s hard for them to create any danger.

The big surprise in the top five is Nottingham Forest. Steve Cooper’s side has quietly built one of the more resilient defenses in the league, ranking third in xGA with 5.4. For a team many tipped to struggle this season, Forest is proving doubters wrong by being hard to break down and disciplined at the back.

At the other end of the spectrum, Leicester City are languishing with a concerning 12.3 xGA. Their return to the Premier League has been rough, and unless Dean Smith can tighten things up at the back, the Foxes will be in for a long, painful season. The sheer volume of chances they’re giving up makes it difficult to win games, no matter how well they perform going forward.

Manchester United’s inclusion on the worst xGA list is also alarming. With 10.8 xGA, the Red Devils are far too porous at the back, which raises questions about Erik ten Hag’s system. Can United shore things up, or are they in for a campaign riddled with defensive vulnerabilities? It’s a question that needs answering soon if they are to challenge for top honors.

While Liverpool may be the team to beat right now, these defensive stats paint an interesting picture of which sides are rock solid and which need to hit the panic button. As the season progresses, finding the balance between attack and defense will be crucial for teams looking to stay competitive at both ends of the table.

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