xG For Breakdown: Who’s Firing and Who’s Misfiring After Week 3

The Premier League is well and truly off to a cracking start, with teams already giving us a sneak peek into their firepower—or lack thereof. After three weeks of action, the xG stats (expected goals) are painting a vivid picture of who’s cooking and who’s, well, still looking for the ingredients.

At the top, Manchester City’s attack is doing what they do best—dominating. With their fluid passing and ruthless precision, it’s no surprise they’re sitting comfortably with the highest xG. Liverpool isn’t far behind either, showing that Klopp’s side still knows how to carve open defenses with their relentless press and pace. However, the real eyebrow-raiser is Bournemouth. Sneaking into the top three for xG, they’re proving to be more than just survivalists this season. Their attack is looking sharp, and it feels like they’re coming for more than just a mid-table finish.

On the other side of the coin, Ipswich City’s xG after week three has them dead last. It’s looking bleak for the new boys, as they seem to be struggling to even threaten opposition goalkeepers. Leicester City, fresh off their promotion, aren’t faring much better either. With an xG that suggests they’re struggling to get into good scoring positions, they need to find their attacking rhythm quickly. Crystal Palace also rounds out the bottom, which is a surprise given the quality in their squad.

As the season progresses, it’ll be fascinating to see if these trends hold. Will the top teams continue their attacking dominance, or will someone like Bournemouth make a run for Europe? And can Leicester and Ipswich shake off the early rust and start hitting the back of the net more consistently? For now, the xG doesn’t lie—some teams are clicking, and others are still stalling.

xG Against Week 3: Defensive Fortresses and Leaky Ships – A Tale of Two xG Stories

xG against data are revealing which teams are getting it right at the back and which ones are leaking more than a colander in a monsoon. Defensively speaking, there’s already a clear divide forming between the masters of the art and the teams who might need to take another look at their strategies—or perhaps just buy a few new defenders in January.

On one side of the pitch, Manchester City, predictably, are keeping things tidy. It’s no surprise that Pep’s side is sitting pretty at the top of the xG against rankings. With only 2.0 xG against, it looks like City could set up a deck chair in goal and still walk away with the points. Joining them are Nottingham Forest—yes, you read that right—who have somehow managed to muscle their way into the upper echelon of defensive solidity. You have to hand it to Steve Cooper for drilling his team so well early in the season.

Liverpool and Chelsea round out the top four, proving that when their managers spoke about “solidifying the back line,” they weren’t just making empty promises. Liverpool, in particular, are looking much sharper compared to their sometimes chaotic 2023/24 campaign, while Chelsea’s 3.2 xG against stat shows that Mauricio Pochettino has instilled some much-needed resilience in his squad.

But then there are those who are having a bit of a defensive nightmare. Ipswich City are learning the hard way that the Premier League isn’t the Championship—and their 6.8 xG against isn’t going to win them any defensive awards. West Ham, Everton, and Southampton are also struggling, with each team shipping chances like it’s going out of style. These sides better hope their goalkeepers packed their capes because they’re going to need some heroic performances to keep those numbers from ballooning.

Brentford, surprisingly, round out the bottom five. Thomas Frank’s side usually prides itself on defensive organization, but early signs suggest there’s something amiss this season. If they don’t get it sorted, it could be a long campaign for the Bees.

In short, some teams are mastering the defensive dark arts while others are still figuring out which end of the wand to hold. As we head deeper into the season, the battle between these two contrasting defensive stories will be one to watch closely.