In a thrilling encounter during match week 3, Arsenal and Brighton played out a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium, a result that leaves both teams reflecting on missed opportunities. The xG (Expected Goals) numbers tell a story of Brighton’s attacking intent as they racked up an impressive 2.5 xG compared to Arsenal’s 1.7 xG. (Although most of that 2.5 xG came after the Declan Rice sending off) Despite this, both sides found the back of the net only once, illustrating the difference between chances created and converted.
Match Momentum and Key Moments
Arsenal were on the front foot during the 1st half and went into the break leading in the match 1-0 off a beautiful Kai Havertz finish. At which point, I (@PitchAndre) jinxed the Gunners.
And not 5 minutes into the 2nd half, one of those holding midfielders got a second yellow and was sent off from the match. I will not get into here, but it was a completely undeserved red card.
After the red card, Brighton’s kicked it up a gear and started to penetrate that Arsenal defense. Joćo Pedro’s equalizer in the 57th minute, which came with an xG of 0.58, was a play that stemmed from weak defending and laziness from Thomas Partey. Arsenal still had chances though after being sent down to 10 men, namely a huge chance from Kai Havertz that he should’ve had 74th minute and then the sliding Saka shot a few minutes later.
Shots and Conversion Analysis
The shot maps for both teams offer a deeper insight into their attacking strategies. Brighton took 22 shots with an xG of 2.54, but they were only able to convert one of those chances, highlighting a lack of clinical finishing. The majority of Brighton’s efforts were taken from inside the box, with several attempts narrowly missing the target or being saved by David Raya. Arsenal were doing everything to block shots and they were very successful in that endeavor. I love the reactions they have to getting huge blocks, its like scoring goals for them, especially Gabriel.
Arsenal, on the other hand, managed 10 shots with an xG of 1.68. Their shot map shows fewer attempts from dangerous positions, and while they had a couple of on-target efforts, they too struggled to find the finishing touch especially in that first half. If Arsenal had managed to put away a few more chances before the break and were up by more than 1, the Rice sending off could have had a smaller effect on them.
Possession and Passing Tactics
Arsenal’s in possession tactics got dramatically shifted after the Declan Rice sending off with them failing to get many combinations off each other after being reduced to 10 men. When building these visualizations, we have a condition that 5 passes have to be made between players to get a line between them. Clearly, outside of the back line the Arsenal midfield and attackers were not very fluid in possession throughout this match.
It was a similar story for Brighton. A rather disjointed first half led to not many passes between the creators and finishers and that sort of continued throughout the match. Once Arsenal were down to 10 men, they went into a 5-3-1 and basically did not allow Brighton to get to the ball into the dangerous areas .
This match was a tale of a referees decision and missed opportunities. Brighton will feel they could have taken all three points given their dominance in both possession and chances created after the sending off. Arsenal, meanwhile, should be happy they survived with a draw. Granted they missed quite a few opportunities to be further ahead in the 1st half and those 2 big chances in the 2nd half. Both teams remain unbeaten after three games.
For Arsenal, its onto the North London Derby without Declan Rice… I’m sure that Mikel Arteta will have a plan but its still a huge loss.