We’re nine matchweeks into the 2024/25 Premier League season, and our most recent season simulation shows Manchester City on top. Manchester City and Liverpool have firmly established themselves as the title contenders, with City leading the table at 84 projected points and Liverpool hot on their heels at 83. The pressure is on for both teams as they jostle for the top spot in what’s shaping up to be a two-horse race. While City has an 89% chance of clinching the title, Liverpool isn’t far behind, boasting an 88% chance of a top-two finish. Arsenal, now in third place with 80 points, holds a slim 1% chance for the title but a rock-solid 98% likelihood of finishing in the top three.
The Big Four: Chelsea Stays Solid, Villa and Spurs Eye Europe
Chelsea remains firmly in fourth with 70 points, staying consistent but far from threatening the title favorites. Their Champions League qualification odds are virtually guaranteed at 97%, keeping the fans optimistic about European nights at Stamford Bridge. Aston Villa and Tottenham round out the top six, projected at 66 and 65 points respectively. Villa’s top-five finish probability is 68%, reflecting their impressive season so far, while Spurs are in the mix at 46%, showing just how competitive the fight for European places will be this year.
Mid-Table Movers and Shakers
One of the more exciting developments this week is Nottingham Forest’s rise to 12th, building on the upward momentum we noted in previous weeks. Forest has shown resilience, moving up a spot since Matchweek 8 and distancing themselves from relegation threats. Bournemouth, holding on to 10th place, continues to surprise, reinforcing their mid-table status. Brighton, Newcastle, and Manchester United fill out the rest of the top ten, holding steady without much movement. The competition in this part of the table is fierce, with teams scrambling to secure those all-important points for a respectable finish.
Relegation Zone Drama: Can Wolves and Everton Avoid the Drop?
At the other end of the table, the relegation fight remains intense. Wolves and Everton are sitting just above the relegation line, projected at 36 and 39 points, respectively. Both clubs will need to find some consistency to avoid dropping further down as the season progresses. The bottom three — Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton — are entrenched in a bleak outlook. Leicester slipped to 18th, with a 91% chance of relegation, while Ipswich and Southampton hold the 19th and 20th spots with relegation probabilities of 91% and 99%, respectively. For these teams, the battle to survive looks increasingly dire, and every point will be critical as they fight to stay in the top flight.
Final Thoughts on Matchweek 9
This week’s simulation solidifies some key narratives: Manchester City and Liverpool are the favorites for the title, Arsenal and Chelsea are comfortable in the Champions League spots, and the race for European places remains intense with Aston Villa and Tottenham chasing glory. Meanwhile, the mid-table teams like Forest and Bournemouth are proving they can punch above their weight, adding unpredictability to the league. And as for the relegation zone, it’s shaping up to be a brutal fight for survival, with Wolves and Everton on thin ice and the bottom three entrenched in a battle they’ll need a miracle to escape.