It was a tale of domination without reward for Manchester United, who left the City Ground with nothing to show despite racking up over two expected goals. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, made the most of their limited attacking moments, sealing a gritty 1-0 win thanks to a clinical early strike from Anthony Elanga. Football may not always be fair, but it’s rarely dull.
📊 Stat Breakdown: United Dominate, Forest Efficient
United bossed the numbers with 67% possession, 20 shots, and an xG of 2.11 — but Forest’s compact defending and clinical finishing gave them all three points.
Shots: United 20 – Forest 8
xG: United 2.11 – Forest 0.75
Shots on Target: United 6 – Forest 2
Touches in Box: United 35 – Forest 14
Possession: United 67% – Forest 33%
Despite the disparity, United simply couldn’t find the back of the net, while Forest scored from one of their two shots on target.
📈 Momentum: All Red, No Reward
The xG timeline was one-way traffic after Forest’s early opener. Elanga struck in the 5th minute with a cool finish (xG: 0.22), and from then on it was a siege on the Forest penalty box. United’s attacks steadily mounted, especially in the second half, but the final touch eluded them. A mix of poor finishing, last-ditch defending, and sheer misfortune saw Forest cling on.
🎯 Shot Maps: Profligacy vs Precision
United’s shot map shows volume but not venom. A cluster of attempts around the six-yard box – including two from high xG areas totaling 0.82 – were either saved or scuffed. With 13 shots off target and 5 blocked, it was an exercise in inefficiency.
Forest’s attacking was minimal but purposeful. Just eight shots all game, yet one perfect pass into the channel and one composed finish made all the difference.
🧠 Possession Patterns: United’s Engine, Forest’s Fortress
United’s pass map shows a structured and patient buildup with Bruno Fernandes, Ugarte, and Zirkzee forming a tight triangle in the final third. The fullbacks – Dalot and Dorgu – pushed high and wide, but the central congestion made it difficult to carve open clear chances.
Forest’s pass map was the opposite: deep, narrow, and direct. The majority of passing triangles sat just outside their own box. Danilo, Gibbs-White, and Awoniyi offered fleeting transitions but were largely there to hold the ball up and relieve pressure. Forest weren’t looking to play – they were looking to survive, and they did just that.
🧩 Final Word
Manchester United walk away with 0 points but the data of a 3-0 win. Nottingham Forest walk away with the only stat that matters: 3 points. In a Premier League season where fine margins define European spots and relegation battles, this one felt like a mugging in broad daylight – and United were the ones left empty-handed.